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Gold, Oil, and War: How to Manage Risk When Geopolitics Move Markets

Gold just tested $5,400 an ounce. Brent crude jumped 7.3% in a single session. The Strait of Hormuz — where 20% of the world's oil passes through — is effectively closed.

If you're a futures trader watching this unfold and you don't have a risk management plan, you're gambling. Full stop.

The Iran-Israel conflict escalated fast in early March 2026. Coordinated strikes, retaliatory missile launches, and now a naval standoff in one of the most critical shipping lanes on the planet. Markets responded exactly how you'd expect — chaos in energy, a flight to safety in metals, and volatility spiking across the board.

Here's how we're thinking about it at Hawai'i Trading Academy — and what you should be doing with your risk right now.

What's Actually Happening in Gold and Oil?

Gold is surging on pure safe-haven demand. When missiles fly, money flows into gold. That's not a prediction — it's a pattern that's repeated in every major geopolitical crisis for decades. Gold pushed past $5,400/o...

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The One Risk Rule That Separates Pros from Blown Accounts

Most traders obsess over entries. They spend hours scanning charts, backtesting setups. Remember, the process matters more than profits, hunting for the perfect candlestick pattern — then slap on a random position size and wonder why one bad trade wipes out a week of gains.

We've seen it hundreds of times coaching traders through our Net Alpha program. The strategy is solid. The edge is real. But the sizing? Complete afterthought.

Here's the truth: position sizing is the single most important decision you make on every trade. Not your entry. Not your indicator. The size.

Why Position Sizing Matters More Than Your Setup

Think about it this way. You could have a 70% win rate strategy — backtested, verified, the works — and still blow your account if you're risking 10% per trade. Four losers in a row (which absolutely will happen) puts you down 40%. Now you need a 67% gain just to get back to breakeven.

Meanwhile, a trader with a 55% win rate risking 1% per trade? They sleep fine. Fo...

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Setting Goals, You Can Achieve: A Framework

Crafting a Resilient Path: Insights from Episodes 58 and 59
As we usher in the end of the year, our recent podcast episodes have delved deep into the art of setting and achieving goals, providing a roadmap for those seeking purpose and intention as they navigate the journey ahead. In this blog post, we'll explore the highlights from Episodes 58 and 59, which focus on trading through the holidays and culminate in a powerful discussion on ending the year with goals and intentions.
Episode 58: Trading Through the Holidays - Missing Out on 1.28%
In Episode 58, we examined the impact of trading through the holiday season, specifically addressing the consequences of missing out on a 1.28% gain. The discussion set the stage for a profound exploration of tackling goals logically, prompting Reid to pose a crucial question to Glenn: How does one go about it?
Framework of Setting Goals: Episode 59 - Ending the Year with Goals and Intentions (Part 2)
1. Set Goals with a ...
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Process OVER Profits - becoming a successful trader

Emphasizing Process Over Profits: A Deeper Dive into Mitigating Emotional Trading Errors
In the intricate world of trading, the quest for financial success is a driving force for many. However, this pursuit can become a double-edged sword when the fixation on monetary gains overshadows the fundamental principles of disciplined and strategic trading. This expanded exploration delves into why a profit-centric mindset leads to emotional errors and how a steadfast commitment to process-oriented trading is the cornerstone of long-term success in the financial markets.
The Psychological Trap of Profit-Centric Trading
The allure of quick profits in trading can ensnare even the most rational minds into a web of emotional decision-making. This section further examines the psychological dynamics at play when traders prioritize profits over process.
  1. The Emotional Rollercoaster: Trading, by its nature, is fraught with uncertainty and risk. A focus on potential financial rewards...
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Knowing When To Stay Out Of The Market

Trades won’t always be available: knowing when to stay out of the market. 
EDGE: Sometimes there isn’t anything on watch, other times you can have 10 tickers on your watchlist but enter none because it doesn’t fit your edge. Your Edge.  The market isn’t going to go the way YOU want it. You just need to sit back and trade your plan.
PSY: We have to make clear decisions based on our current mindset, trading capital and mental capital. Am I in a current drawdown or winning streak? 
RISK: sitting on your hands can save you money. Making small shifts like using limit orders instead of market orders.
Sense of intuition when making decisions. This can happen for a small percentage of trades. For example, I was in a trade and saw that price action was forming a “top”. I took my profits and exited positions. The next morning, the price dropped. I can’t say it was a complete win and followed my rules. It comes with experience and time. It’s like that gut feeling.
 In...
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Trading Reality vs. Trading Fantasy

Overnight success, fancy cars, expensive watches, and an overall care-free easy-going mind, and fast paced lifestyle...welcome to the world of trading. Well, Fantasy trading that is. In reality, trading the same way, year after year gets a little redundant and quite honestly, boring, but boring works.
At Hawai'i Trading Academy you won't find any of that shenanigan here. Instead, you find a reasonable approach as we adhere to principles of Risk, Edge, and Psychology. AKA - REPs for short. A saying you'll hear in the gym that aptly fits our style of education is "Put in the REPS!" - focusing on HTA REPS will streamline your success in the markets.
Systematic Trading: The Grounded Reality
Risk Management
At the heart of systematic trading lies the unwavering focus on risk management. This approach doesn't just acknowledge the inevitability of losses; it plans for them. By employing a disciplined risk management strategy, traders can ensure their survival in the market ove...
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Think Like The 5% - Market & Mindset Consistency

In the realm of trading, a stark statistic often captures the attention of newcomers and veterans alike: 90 to 95% of traders fail. This figure, while daunting, shifts the focus onto a critical question that most in the trading community overlook. Instead of dwelling on why the vast majority fail, a more productive inquiry is to explore what the successful 5% do differently. Their secret? Consistency. But not just any form of consistency—there are two distinct types that set them apart: the consistency in action, particularly in journaling and documenting trades, and the consistency in mindset towards trading itself.

 
Defining Success and Consistency in Trading
Success in trading doesn't necessarily equate to winning every month. Instead, it means sustaining the energy to improve daily, becoming an elite performer through an unwavering willingness to learn. This perspective requires us not to belittle another's success or to underscore the challenges of achieving consistency in t...
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Leaving Your 9-5 To Trade Full Time

Join us as we explore the realistic challenges and strategies of transitioning from a 9-to-5 job to full-time trading. Whether you're an aspiring trader or looking to refine your trading approach, this podcast aims to equip you with the insights and tools needed to navigate the trading landscape successfully.

  1. Motivations for Trading: Discussing common reasons why people want to shift from traditional employment to trading.

  2. Financial Preparation: How to financially prepare for the transition, including creating a cushion and understanding income requirements.

  3. Emotional and Lifestyle Impact: Exploring the psychological adjustments and lifestyle changes that accompany full-time trading.

  4. Risk Management: The importance of managing risks and expectations. Start with understanding position sizing and the 1% rule in the volatile trading market. Not sure where to start? Our free Unveiling Clarity e-book can help you find your path.

  5. Continuous Learning: The need for ong

    ...
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Trading From Your Phone: PROS And CONS

complete guide to stock market hours in Hawai\u2019i. It and has revolutionized the way current society functions. It’s no wonder why trading from your phone has become so popular. Mobile trading is only going to be getting better and is growing at a phenomenal rate. However, there are a few things to understand about trading with your mobile device. Just because you can doesn’t mean you should. ","type":"unstyled","depth":0,"inlineStyleRanges":[],"entityRanges":[],"data":{}},{"key":"5odv6","text":"Nowadays, it’s incredibly easy and convenient to trade from your phone. However, there are some things to be aware of if you are currently, or thinking about trading from your phone. ","type":"unstyled","depth":0,"inlineStyleRanges":[],"entityRanges":[],"data":{}},{"key":"cib4a","text":"Depending on their style, many professional traders have two or more monitors as their main trading station. The reason is with trading, there is much info to be gathered and looked at. Chart comparison, news...
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TYPES OF MARKET ORDERS

position sizing is just as important as knowing your order types. We lead with integrity and transparency guide us as we focus on the essential pillars of trading success. Strategy Lab helps you build and test your approach: Risk Management, Edge, and Psychology — the foundation of Net Alpha.","type":"unstyled","depth":0,"inlineStyleRanges":[{"offset":0,"length":9,"style":"UNDERLINE"},{"offset":0,"length":142,"style":"BOLD"},{"offset":104,"length":15,"style":"ITALIC"},{"offset":121,"length":5,"style":"ITALIC"},{"offset":131,"length":10,"style":"ITALIC"}],"entityRanges":[],"data":{}},{"key":"cq1u9","text":"","type":"unstyled","depth":0,"inlineStyleRanges":[],"entityRanges":[],"data":{}},{"key":"8qkg7","text":"Create Your Own Success In The Markets.","type":"unstyled","depth":0,"inlineStyleRanges":[{"offset":0,"length":39,"style":"BOLD"},{"offset":0,"length":39,"style":"ITALIC"}],"entityRanges":[],"data":{}},{"key":"4v195","text":"Book a FREE call with us: https://bit.ly/HTACall","type...
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