Oil Swings $40 in Weeks — What the Hormuz Crisis Teaches About Your Trading Process
If your risk plan only works when markets are calm, you don’t have a risk plan. You have a wish.
The Strait of Hormuz crisis has been the defining macro event of 2026. Since February, oil prices have swung from above $144 a barrel to below $100, then back to $110+. The IEA called it the largest supply disruption in the history of the global oil market. And if you trade NQ futures, you felt every ripple — because when oil goes haywire, risk sentiment follows.
This isn’t a geopolitics lesson. We’re not here to break down foreign policy. We’re here to talk about what this kind of event reveals about your process — and whether it held up or fell apart.
Why NQ Traders Need to Care About Oil
NQ doesn’t trade oil. But NQ trades sentiment, and sentiment this year has been hostage to Hormuz headlines.
Here’s the pattern we’ve seen since February: A headline drops about deal progress between the US and Iran. Oil dips. Risk-on flows spike. NQ gaps up. Then 48 hours later, negotiations stall....
CPI Day Prep: What Every NQ Trader Needs to Know Before May 12
By Glenn & Reid | Hawai'i Trading Academy | May 2026
The April CPI report drops May 12 at 8:30 AM ET. That’s 2:30 AM HST — before most of us are even thinking about charts.
But the move it creates? That’ll define the first two hours of the NQ session. And if you’re not prepared, it’ll define your P&L too — in a direction you don’t want.
Here’s what CPI actually measures, how NQ typically reacts, and what we do (and don’t do) on event days at HTA.
What Is CPI and Why Does NQ Care?
The Consumer Price Index measures the average change in prices paid by consumers for goods and services. The Bureau of Labor Statistics releases it monthly, and it’s the market’s primary gauge of inflation.
Why does NQ move on it? Because inflation drives Fed policy, Fed policy drives interest rates, and interest rates drive the valuation of growth stocks — which make up most of the Nasdaq 100.
Hot CPI (above expectations) = rates stay higher longer = NQ tends to sell off. Cool CPI (below expectations) ...