Oil Swings $40 in Weeks — What the Hormuz Crisis Teaches About Your Trading Process
If your risk plan only works when markets are calm, you don’t have a risk plan. You have a wish.
The Strait of Hormuz crisis has been the defining macro event of 2026. Since February, oil prices have swung from above $144 a barrel to below $100, then back to $110+. The IEA called it the largest supply disruption in the history of the global oil market. And if you trade NQ futures, you felt every ripple — because when oil goes haywire, risk sentiment follows.
This isn’t a geopolitics lesson. We’re not here to break down foreign policy. We’re here to talk about what this kind of event reveals about your process — and whether it held up or fell apart.
Why NQ Traders Need to Care About Oil
NQ doesn’t trade oil. But NQ trades sentiment, and sentiment this year has been hostage to Hormuz headlines.
Here’s the pattern we’ve seen since February: A headline drops about deal progress between the US and Iran. Oil dips. Risk-on flows spike. NQ gaps up. Then 48 hours later, negotiations stall....