Is Your Trading Edge Real, or Did You Get Lucky?
You had a green week. Maybe your best in months. And somewhere under the good feeling is a quieter question you might not want to ask. Was that skill, or did I just get lucky?
It matters more than the P&L. Because if you cannot tell the difference, you will size up on luck and blame your strategy when the variance turns. This week is a perfect test case. The tape ripped to a record, then reversed hard, handing out lucky wins and unlucky losses to everyone in the room. So let's talk about how to know whether your trading edge is real.
Why Can't You Trust a Good Week?
Because over a small number of trades, a real edge and pure luck produce the exact same equity curve. There is no visible difference. The market does not stamp "skill" on your winners and "luck" on the rest.
Run the coin-flip in your head. Flip a fair coin five times and getting four heads is common. It happens all the time, and it says nothing about the coin. Five trades is the same. A four-and-one week can come from a...